Probability of FDA approval

  • What is the “Tipping Point Probability of a Material Consequence” for the executives? That is, what is the probability of achieving FDA approval for their vaccine candidate?

Probability of achieving FDA approval = (Probability of successful phase III completion) and (Probability of FDA approval)

0.7*0.95 = 0.665

(b) What is the “Tipping Point Probability of a Material Consequence” for the executives? That is, what is the revised probability of achieving FDA approval for their vaccine candidate?

0.7*0.5 = 0.35

   (c) If the top three most productive investments were approved for implementation, what would be the total investment and how much enterprise value would be protected as measured in NPV?

Total investment = 21 millions

NPV = 202.85 Million

 2(a) Assuming that any one funded program has a 40% chance of achieving FDA approval by January 31, 2021, how many vaccine programs should be funded to achieve a 95% chance of having at least one vaccine program FDA approved by January 31, 2021?

0.4*x = 0.95

X = 0.95/0.4

= Approximately 2 to 3 times

  • If the US Federal Government pursues a vaccine-based program, how many lives is the program expected to save?

{0.5/100}*2000000 = 10,000

2000000-10000 = 1,990,000

  • If the US Federal Government pursues a cure-based program, how many lives is the program expected to save?

0.97*1000000 = 970000

          d)  Per $100,000 of spending, how many lives do the two programs individually save?

                                 For cure program = 100 million/1million = 100 dollars per person

                                         100000/100 = 1000 people

                                 For vaccine program = (100million /20million) = 5dollars per person

                                           100000/5 = 20000 people

  • Which program, the COVID-19 Vaccination Program or the COVID-19 Cure Program, do you recommend the US Federal Government to pursue?

COVID-19 Vaccination Program is recommendable.

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